This week I was reminded of the story of Abraham Wald. In World War 11, the RAF undertook a study of planes returned from their missions, they counted up all the bullet holes on various parts. The planes showed similar concentrations of damage. The High Command wanted to place the armour in areas that had a density of damage.
Abraham Wald, a statistician, pointed out a critical flaw in the analysis: the Command had only looked at airplanes which had returned. He proposed a counterintuitive statistical reasoning, he explained that if a plane made it back safely with, say, bullet holes in the fuselage, it meant those bullet holes weren't the most damaging. Armour was needed on the sections that, on average, had few bullet holes such as the cockpit or the engines. Planes with bullet holes in those parts never made it back.
This oversight happens when we look at one thing, without questioning whether we are looking at it the right way. A visual like this drives us to think about what is beyond the obvious, avoiding the temptation to jump to conclusions. We must be aware of the need to see the whole picture and notice when we are not. In any crisis, one of our challenges is to think about what we are looking at, to think about where we should act – in the obvious or to reason, to question and to learn. In our successes, we learn what we do well, in our losses we see our true vulnerabilities. As a community, this year St Augustine’s College has seen our vulnerabilities, but we have also learnt about our strength and our resilience.
This term marks the start of the end for our Year 12 students, they have experienced a final year like no other. As a College community of staff and families, we aim to give everything we can to Year 12, so they finish honoured as graduated and respected young men who have met the challenges of this year with such character. On Monday at 7:00 pm, we will host a ZOOM webinar for families and students to discuss Year 12 Graduation, Trial HSC logistics and the HSC.
COVID-19 Protocols
A reminder once again of our health and hygiene protocols. As a community we have demonstrated outstanding practice whether it is sanitiser, washing hands, exercising good social distancing, or family’s adherence to staying home and being tested if anyone is unwell.
The College will continue to monitor advice and conform with NSW Health guidelines regarding parent gatherings, full school assemblies, non-essential visitors, excursions or camp and school events.
One of our International families has donated 5000 masks which are expected to arrive in the coming weeks. If any staff or students wish to, they are welcome to wear a mask.
Return to Saturday sports commencing this Saturday, 25 July 2020
NO SPECTATORS PERMITTED
With community sport returned for some weeks, it is exciting to return to our first ISA winter sports games this weekend. We are very appreciative of the extra burden that ‘No Spectators’ creates on families, and their Uber services, however we are asking all parents to observe the protocols and restrictions in place. These have been set down by the ISA for all schools and we support these.
The College will continue to review and amend these protocols as we receive directions from the NSW Government and the Independent Sporting Association (ISA).
Jonathan Byrne
Principal
